A recent poll of over 20,000 voters in seven swing states conducted by The American Survey (powered by What If Media Group) shows Kamala Harris closing the gap on Donald Trump in the battle for the presidency and that, once again, the race will be decided by swing voters in swing states. But just how close is it?

In two key battlegrounds, it’s too close to call. Harris leads Trump in Georgia by just half a percent, and in North Carolina, the candidates are neck and neck at 42.7%. Harris has edged out a 3.4% lead in Pennsylvania and distanced herself from Trump in Michigan (+7.7%) and Wisconsin (+9.5%) — at the same time, Trump has taken comfortable control of Arizona (+12.6%) and a lead in Nevada (+5.7%).

But, significantly, a decisive number of voters are still up for grabs. Over 14% of voters in each of these states said they planned to vote for someone other than Harris or Trump. In the last presidential election, third-party votes accounted for less than 2% of the total popular vote. If 2024 is anything like 2020, the presidency will be decided by the candidates’ ability to sway these voters.

In a similar poll conducted in January, support for Joe Biden had lulled below 26% — trailing both Trump and a third alternative — in every state surveyed. Six months later, with Biden out of the race, Trump’s massive lead has dissipated.

All data reported by The American Survey represents at least 116,000 responses from our 500,000 daily users polled randomly across the United States, giving us a 99% confidence level with a margin of error of +/-1%. To learn more about this survey or how our surveys can help you, contact: https://whatifmediagroup.com/pr/